Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at FTG Grand Archive Regionals
decks
3
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
5-9-1
overall winrate
36.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.4%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
47.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1346
· median 1343
· range 1329–1364
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1203
Q3 1368
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +2.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
